{"id":1588,"date":"2021-05-23T14:55:31","date_gmt":"2021-05-23T09:25:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.medglobalhealth.com\/?page_id=1588"},"modified":"2021-09-15T17:04:41","modified_gmt":"2021-09-15T11:34:41","slug":"covid-19-india-predictive-analytical-modeling-14-may-2021","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/medglobalhealth.com\/?page_id=1588","title":{"rendered":"Covid-19 India Predictive Analytical Modeling 7 September, 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row pioneer_ellements_style=&#8221;Without Paddings&#8221;][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<div class=\"present-block-one\">8 July, 2021<\/div>\n<div class=\"present-block-name\">Covid-19 India Predictive Analytical Modeling 7 September, 2021<\/div>\n<div class=\"present-block-line\"><\/div>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row full_width=&#8221;stretch_row&#8221; equal_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; css_animation=&#8221;fadeIn&#8221; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1611590824334{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221; el_class=&#8221;text-center-responsive&#8221;][vc_column css_animation=&#8221;none&#8221; width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1700&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; onclick=&#8221;link_image&#8221; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1631616854750{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}&#8221;][\/vc_column][vc_column css_animation=&#8221;none&#8221; width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1701&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; onclick=&#8221;link_image&#8221;][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1702&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; onclick=&#8221;link_image&#8221;][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1703&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; onclick=&#8221;link_image&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row full_width=&#8221;stretch_row&#8221; equal_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; css_animation=&#8221;fadeIn&#8221; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1611590824334{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221; el_class=&#8221;text-center-responsive&#8221;][vc_column css_animation=&#8221;none&#8221; width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][\/vc_column][vc_column css_animation=&#8221;none&#8221; width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1704&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; onclick=&#8221;link_image&#8221;][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1705&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; onclick=&#8221;link_image&#8221;][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: Calibri;\">Covid-19 India Prediction Model as of 7 September 2021 includes actuals for April to August 2021, and monthly forecasts from September 2021 to December 2022. <\/span><\/h3>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600; font-size: 16px;\">Covid-19 Cases and Death forecasts are presented for 2 scenarios:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Optimistic<\/strong>, based on <strong>officially reported<\/strong> statistics<\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">A <strong>Pessimistic<\/strong>, but more <strong>realistic<\/strong>, scenario based on the assumption of an average overall <strong>under reporting<\/strong> by <strong>x4<\/strong> to <strong>x5<\/strong> range.<\/span> This assumption is based on some recent credible studies and estimates conducted in India, which analyzed underreporting by states, population surveys, and current \u2018excess\u2019 mortality rates versus 2019 as a base year.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600; font-size: 16px;\">Actuals: <\/span><\/strong>(April to August 2021)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Officially reported <strong><u>Covid-19 Cases<\/u><\/strong> which peaked at around <strong>290,000 per day<\/strong> in <strong>May 2021<\/strong>, was down to <strong>73,000<\/strong> in <strong>June<\/strong>, with <strong>July <\/strong>hovering around <strong>40,000 per day<\/strong>, and in <strong>August<\/strong> further reducing to around<strong> 37,000 per day<\/strong>. Cumulative officially confirmed Covid-19 Cases at end of August stood at <strong>32.8 Million<\/strong> cases <span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">(with a pessimistic\/more realistic estimate of around <strong>131 Million infected<\/strong>)<\/span>.\u00a0 <strong>385,000 Active Cases<\/strong> were reported at end of August .<\/li>\n<li>Officially reported <strong><u>Death rate<\/u><\/strong> which peaked at around average <strong>3,900 per day<\/strong> in <strong>May 2021<\/strong>, was down to <strong>2,250<\/strong> in <strong>June<\/strong>, with <strong>July<\/strong> coming in around an average of <strong>800 per day<\/strong>. The officially reported death rate substantially further declined in <strong>August<\/strong> to around <strong>475 per day<\/strong>. \u00a0\u00a0Cumulative officially confirmed Covid-19 Deaths at end of August was <strong>439,000 <\/strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">(with a pessimistic\/more realistic estimate of around <strong>2.2 Million deaths<\/strong>)<\/span>.\u00a0 Deaths as a percentage of \u2018estimated\u2019 active cases requiring hospitalizations has decreased substantially from July to August (36% drop).<\/li>\n<li><strong><u>Daily vaccination rates<\/u><\/strong> which averaged <strong>2 Million per day<\/strong> in <strong>May 2021<\/strong> , doubled to <strong>4\u00a0 Million per day<\/strong> in <strong>June<\/strong>, with <strong>July<\/strong> averaging around <strong>4.4 Million per day<\/strong>. <strong>August<\/strong> saw a strong vaccination performance in India with about <strong>6.0 Million<\/strong> doses administered <strong>per day<\/strong>. \u00a0At the end of August 2021, a total of <strong>654 Million<\/strong> doses were administered (representing 47% of population), with <strong>148 Million<\/strong> (10.6%) fully vaccinated and <strong>506 Million<\/strong> (36.4%) with at least 1 dose of vaccination.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600; font-size: 16px;\">Forecast:\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>(September 2021 to December 2022)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Covid-19 officially reported <strong><u>Cases<\/u><\/strong> are forecast to peak at around <strong>41 Million<\/strong> by the <strong>April 2022<\/strong> timeframe <span style=\"color: #ff6600;\">(with a pessimistic\/more realistic estimate of around <strong>164 Million<\/strong>)<\/span>. This forecast assumes there will be <strong><u>no<\/u> 3<sup>rd<\/sup> wave of Covid-19 infections<\/strong> based on the current trend of daily reported new cases holding steady at around 40,000 cases (or below) in July and August 2021.<\/li>\n<li>Officially reported <strong><u>Covid-19 Deaths<\/u><\/strong> forecasts are expected to peak at around <strong>530,000<\/strong> by <strong>April 2022<\/strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600;\"> (with a pessimistic\/more realistic estimate of about <strong>2.6 Million<\/strong>).<\/span> This is based on daily new cases holding steady from September to December 2021, with deaths as a percentage of estimated hospitalizations holding at 20% for the same period.<\/li>\n<li><strong><u>First Dose Vaccinations<\/u><\/strong> (for eligible adult population) with <strong>80%<\/strong> of the <strong>total population vaccine coverage<\/strong> is expected to be achieved by around <strong>November 2021<\/strong>. Hopefully, a critical mass of significant immunity for the Indian population should begin to kick-in by the December 2021 timeframe.<\/li>\n<li><strong><u>Full Vaccination<\/u><\/strong> with the 2 required doses for <strong>100% of \u2018eligible\u2019 Indian population<\/strong> can likely be achieved by the <strong>February 2022<\/strong> For simplicity the model does not consider constraints due to any vaccine hesitancy among some segments of the Indian population.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600; font-size: 16px;\">Key Assumptions:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ability to ramp up vaccine production and distribution to enable average daily vaccination rate of <strong>8 Million per day<\/strong> in<strong> September 2021<\/strong>, peaking to <strong>10 Million per day<\/strong> by <strong>November 2021<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u2018Actual\u2019<\/strong> daily vaccination rates on <strong>some days<\/strong> in <strong>early September 2021<\/strong> have been coming in at around <strong>8 to 11 Million doses per day<\/strong>. This is a positive indicator that the 10 Million per day target is realistic and achievable with focused effort by the November 2021 timeframe.<\/li>\n<li>This forecast assumes there will be <strong><u>no<\/u> 3<sup>rd<\/sup> wave of Covid-19 infections<\/strong> based on the current trend of daily reported new cases holding steady at around 40,000 cases (or below) in July and August 2021. The forecast has optimistically assumed this trend can be held September through to December 2021, with a robust infection containment strategy coupled with the current trend of rapidly increasing daily vaccination rates.<\/li>\n<li>It is further assumed that should a trend of 3<sup>rd<\/sup> wave of Covid-19 infections begin to materialize, there will be rapid enactment, strict enforcement and population adherence to robust infection containment and prevention protocols in all Indian states. As to whether this is do able or realistic is another matter.<\/li>\n<li>Assumes there will be <strong><u>no<\/u> 4<sup>th<\/sup> wave (or subsequent wave)<\/strong> of infections with serious cases requiring hospitalizations, with a critical mass of vaccination coverage for Indian population kicking-in by the December 2021 timeframe.<\/li>\n<li>No further catastrophic breakthrough Covid-19 virus variant with higher infection and\/or mortality rates, or with vaccine immunity.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Hospitalizations rates<\/strong> based on <strong>Active Cases<\/strong> are \u2018estimated\u2019 to be <strong>20%<\/strong> for the <strong>optimistic<\/strong> (officially reported) scenario, and <strong>25%<\/strong> for the <strong>pessimistic<\/strong> (more realistic) scenario.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Deaths as a percentage of \u2018estimated\u2019 hospitalizations<\/strong> are assumed to hold steady at <strong>20% <\/strong>(or below), from September to December 2021. This is based on the recent positive trend of deaths as a percentage of estimated hospitalizations decreasing substantially from <strong>July<\/strong> at <strong>30%<\/strong> to <strong>August<\/strong> at <strong>19.1% <\/strong>(representing a significant drop of 36%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]<strong><span style=\"color: #ff6600; font-size: 16px;\">Appendix<\/span><\/strong>[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<h2><span style=\"color: #000000; font-family: 'Roboto Slab', serif;\">Covid-19 India Predictive Analytical Modeling Updates<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][vc_row_inner][vc_column_inner width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medglobalhealth.com\/ipages\/flipbook\/14\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">12 August, 2021<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medglobalhealth.com\/ipages\/flipbook\/15\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">8 July, 2021<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medglobalhealth.com\/ipages\/flipbook\/11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">14 May, 2021<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_column_text]<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medglobalhealth.com\/ipages\/flipbook\/12\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Summary<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medglobalhealth.com\/ipages\/flipbook\/13\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Summary<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>[\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][\/vc_column_inner][vc_column_inner width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][\/vc_column_inner][\/vc_row_inner][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row pioneer_ellements_style=&#8221;Without Paddings&#8221;][vc_column][vc_column_text] 8 July, 2021 Covid-19 India Predictive Analytical Modeling 7 September, 2021 [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row full_width=&#8221;stretch_row&#8221; equal_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; css_animation=&#8221;fadeIn&#8221; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1611590824334{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221; el_class=&#8221;text-center-responsive&#8221;][vc_column css_animation=&#8221;none&#8221; width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1700&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; onclick=&#8221;link_image&#8221; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1631616854750{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}&#8221;][\/vc_column][vc_column css_animation=&#8221;none&#8221; width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1701&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; alignment=&#8221;center&#8221; onclick=&#8221;link_image&#8221;][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1702&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; onclick=&#8221;link_image&#8221;][\/vc_column][vc_column width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][vc_single_image image=&#8221;1703&#8243; img_size=&#8221;full&#8221; onclick=&#8221;link_image&#8221;][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row full_width=&#8221;stretch_row&#8221; equal_height=&#8221;yes&#8221; css_animation=&#8221;fadeIn&#8221; css=&#8221;.vc_custom_1611590824334{background-color: #ffffff !important;}&#8221; el_class=&#8221;text-center-responsive&#8221;][vc_column css_animation=&#8221;none&#8221; width=&#8221;1\/4&#8243;][\/vc_column][vc_column css_animation=&#8221;none&#8221;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1343,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"visual-composer.php","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1588","page","type-page","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/medglobalhealth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1588","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/medglobalhealth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/medglobalhealth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medglobalhealth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medglobalhealth.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1588"}],"version-history":[{"count":20,"href":"https:\/\/medglobalhealth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1588\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1720,"href":"https:\/\/medglobalhealth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1588\/revisions\/1720"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/medglobalhealth.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1343"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/medglobalhealth.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1588"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}