Covid-19 India Predictive Analytical Modeling 7 September, 2021

Covid-19 India Prediction Model as of 7 September 2021 includes actuals for April to August 2021, and monthly forecasts from September 2021 to December 2022.

Covid-19 Cases and Death forecasts are presented for 2 scenarios:

1. Optimistic, based on officially reported statistics
2. A Pessimistic, but more realistic, scenario based on the assumption of an average overall under reporting by x4 to x5 range. This assumption is based on some recent credible studies and estimates conducted in India, which analyzed underreporting by states, population surveys, and current ‘excess’ mortality rates versus 2019 as a base year.

Actuals: (April to August 2021)

• Officially reported Covid-19 Cases which peaked at around 290,000 per day in May 2021, was down to 73,000 in June, with July hovering around 40,000 per day, and in August further reducing to around 37,000 per day. Cumulative officially confirmed Covid-19 Cases at end of August stood at 32.8 Million cases (with a pessimistic/more realistic estimate of around 131 Million infected).  385,000 Active Cases were reported at end of August .
• Officially reported Death rate which peaked at around average 3,900 per day in May 2021, was down to 2,250 in June, with July coming in around an average of 800 per day. The officially reported death rate substantially further declined in August to around 475 per day.   Cumulative officially confirmed Covid-19 Deaths at end of August was 439,000 (with a pessimistic/more realistic estimate of around 2.2 Million deaths).  Deaths as a percentage of ‘estimated’ active cases requiring hospitalizations has decreased substantially from July to August (36% drop).
• Daily vaccination rates which averaged 2 Million per day in May 2021 , doubled to 4  Million per day in June, with July averaging around 4.4 Million per day. August saw a strong vaccination performance in India with about 6.0 Million doses administered per day.  At the end of August 2021, a total of 654 Million doses were administered (representing 47% of population), with 148 Million (10.6%) fully vaccinated and 506 Million (36.4%) with at least 1 dose of vaccination.

Forecast: (September 2021 to December 2022)

• Covid-19 officially reported Cases are forecast to peak at around 41 Million by the April 2022 timeframe (with a pessimistic/more realistic estimate of around 164 Million). This forecast assumes there will be no 3^rd wave of Covid-19 infections based on the current trend of daily reported new cases holding steady at around 40,000 cases (or below) in July and August 2021.
• Officially reported Covid-19 Deaths forecasts are expected to peak at around 530,000 by April 2022 (with a pessimistic/more realistic estimate of about 2.6 Million). This is based on daily new cases holding steady from September to December 2021, with deaths as a percentage of estimated hospitalizations holding at 20% for the same period.
• First Dose Vaccinations (for eligible adult population) with 80% of the total population vaccine coverage is expected to be achieved by around November 2021. Hopefully, a critical mass of significant immunity for the Indian population should begin to kick-in by the December 2021 timeframe.
• Full Vaccination with the 2 required doses for 100% of ‘eligible’ Indian population can likely be achieved by the February 2022 For simplicity the model does not consider constraints due to any vaccine hesitancy among some segments of the Indian population.

Key Assumptions:

• Ability to ramp up vaccine production and distribution to enable average daily vaccination rate of 8 Million per day in September 2021, peaking to 10 Million per day by November 2021.
• ‘Actual’ daily vaccination rates on some days in early September 2021 have been coming in at around 8 to 11 Million doses per day. This is a positive indicator that the 10 Million per day target is realistic and achievable with focused effort by the November 2021 timeframe.
• This forecast assumes there will be no 3^rd wave of Covid-19 infections based on the current trend of daily reported new cases holding steady at around 40,000 cases (or below) in July and August 2021. The forecast has optimistically assumed this trend can be held September through to December 2021, with a robust infection containment strategy coupled with the current trend of rapidly increasing daily vaccination rates.
• It is further assumed that should a trend of 3^rd wave of Covid-19 infections begin to materialize, there will be rapid enactment, strict enforcement and population adherence to robust infection containment and prevention protocols in all Indian states. As to whether this is do able or realistic is another matter.
• Assumes there will be no 4^th wave (or subsequent wave) of infections with serious cases requiring hospitalizations, with a critical mass of vaccination coverage for Indian population kicking-in by the December 2021 timeframe.
• No further catastrophic breakthrough Covid-19 virus variant with higher infection and/or mortality rates, or with vaccine immunity.
• Hospitalizations rates based on Active Cases are ‘estimated’ to be 20% for the optimistic (officially reported) scenario, and 25% for the pessimistic (more realistic) scenario.
• Deaths as a percentage of ‘estimated’ hospitalizations are assumed to hold steady at 20% (or below), from September to December 2021. This is based on the recent positive trend of deaths as a percentage of estimated hospitalizations decreasing substantially from July at 30% to August at 19.1% (representing a significant drop of 36%).

Appendix

Covid-19 India Predictive Analytical Modeling Updates